Impact of distribution shapes on simulations: sensitivity analysis of agent parameters

Abstract

This simulation study examines how parameters and distribution shapes for sampling agents’ desired speeds and diameters affect the total evacuation time in egress simulations. The simulations are performed with two models, Pathfinder and the social force model (as implemented in JuPedSim), under three different bottleneck conditions. The effect of choosing uniform or truncated normal distribution is analyzed. In unconstrained geometries, distribution shape significantly affects total evacuation time mainly through the appearance of slow agents. Sensitivity analysis reveals that effect of distribution parameters is highly model and geometry dependent, however speed-related parameters seem to be more influential than the diameter. Uncertainty analysis shows that with increasing dominance of the bottleneck the contribution of inherent randomness prevails the effect of speed parameters.